Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 0.017677 0.020030 0.022584 0.025563 0.028942 0.032660 0.037061
2025-06-22 0.013340 0.016428 0.020071 0.024688 0.030392 0.037217 0.046019
2025-06-29 0.011134 0.014507 0.018717 0.024364 0.031758 0.041129 0.053944
2025-07-06 0.009379 0.012794 0.017258 0.023530 0.032141 0.043582 0.060001
2025-07-13 0.008620 0.012240 0.017165 0.024372 0.034686 0.048970 0.070357
2025-07-20 0.007935 0.011679 0.016958 0.024968 0.036866 0.053969 0.080570
2025-07-27 0.007414 0.011274 0.016898 0.025721 0.039282 0.059450 0.091939
2025-08-03 0.006733 0.010550 0.016282 0.025551 0.040252 0.062813 0.100350
2025-08-10 0.006186 0.009968 0.015810 0.025530 0.041407 0.066502 0.109539
2025-08-17 0.005618 0.009293 0.015120 0.025079 0.041802 0.068974 0.116923
2025-08-24 0.005272 0.008943 0.014911 0.025378 0.043423 0.073532 0.128142
2025-08-31 0.004879 0.008475 0.014461 0.025218 0.044235 0.076773 0.137345
2025-09-07 0.004669 0.008308 0.014515 0.025949 0.046687 0.083093 0.152697
2025-09-14 0.004214 0.007671 0.013706 0.025084 0.046230 0.084269 0.158857
2025-09-21 0.003892 0.007242 0.013221 0.024754 0.046695 0.087108 0.168316
2025-09-28 0.003529 0.006705 0.012495 0.023907 0.046107 0.087929 0.173958
2025-10-05 0.003431 0.006657 0.012664 0.024762 0.048835 0.095221 0.192914
2025-10-12 0.003306 0.006547 0.012705 0.025368 0.051117 0.101830 0.211098
2025-10-19 0.003209 0.006482 0.012823 0.026133 0.053777 0.109395 0.231928
2025-10-26 0.003013 0.006200 0.012493 0.025960 0.054497 0.113089 0.244938
2025-11-02 0.002849 0.005971 0.012248 0.025939 0.055526 0.117490 0.259852
2025-11-09 0.002655 0.005661 0.011814 0.025481 0.055579 0.119831 0.270429
2025-11-16 0.002548 0.005529 0.011739 0.025784 0.057307 0.125897 0.289915